19 February 2007

Words mean things.

My very first real blog entry (not counting the place holder just to get things rolling) concerned suckouts. Big surprise, eh? Poker blogger writing about suckouts. Someone alert the media!

Not so fast, Sparky. This wasn't about a specific suckout or even a group of suckouts. No, it was about what actually constitutes a suckout.

I raised this topic again last week in a comment on Jordan's blog and thought perhaps it deserved another visit.

Poker has a lot of esoteric terminology. Flop, turn, river, top-pair, the nuts, drawing dead, back-door, suckout. And that's not counting all the hands that have names. One thing many of these terms have in common is that they are very specific. Their meaning is not vague, at least not to those who understand them. "The nuts" is a good example. This term is so specific that variations exist to explain differences from the parent term -- "Second nuts", "nut flush", "nut straight", etc. Not all poker terms are quite so specific, but many are.

Suckout is one term that seems to be an exception to this. It has taken on a Humpty Dumpty-ish air of words mean what I want them to mean. About the only thing that is definite in all usages of the term is that somebody who was perceived as being at a disadvantage eventually won the hand. (I say 'perceived' because I've seen it used to describe hands where the alleged underdog was actually the favorite when all the outs were counted.)

I've always been interested in words. Their usage, their origin, their changing of meaning over time. I've also always been somewhat of a purist when it comes to words. Words without fairly specific meanings are, well, meaningless. There are several words and phrases that are misused far more often than they are used correctly and it grates on me when I hear their more common misusage. (My friends will be rolling their eyes about now because they know what's coming next.)

The common misuse of "begs the question" is one of my pet peeves. Proper use of this phrase is largely limited to formal logic and argumentation. It has little application in the everyday world. (Look it up in Wikipedia if you're curious about proper usage.) In common misusage it is synonymous with "raises the question". I'm particularly taken aback by misuse of this phrase by professional writers who should know better. I've largely given up on correcting the common misuse of this phrase, but it still sends little shivers down my spine when I hear it misused in commercials and TV shows.

Poker terminology hardly comes from such lofty origins as the Latin derivation of "begs the question", but this doesn't mean accuracy in usage is any less important. Like "begs the question", it is perhaps too late for "suckout" to return to a more specific usage for which such a term would be justified. But I'm going to add it to my bag of windmills anyway, take it out every so often, and have a good tilt at it.

To that end, I'd like to attempt a working definition of "suckout". Even without an understanding of the poker-related use of the term, it sounds extreme. I believe this was intended by the originator. "Suckout" was a term intended to be applied only in cases where very long odds were overcome, where a very unlikely event occurred.

Prior to writing that previously mentioned blog entry I did a fair amount of internet research looking for a definition of suckout. I found lots of hand-waving attempts at defining the term, often by people who admitted they knew nothing about it but didn't let a little thing like ignorance keep them from expressing an opinion. There was very little written by anyone who seemed to actually have an understanding of the true nature of "suckout". My search did unearth one shining gem of understanding. I quote now from that old blog entry.

"Jobe Gilchrist over on the Full Tilt forums posted something which I will now paraphrase. A suckout occurs when at some point in the hand a player made a very, very bad decision and won the hand anyway. Bad decision here is used in the sense that if you could see all the cards you would not make that same decision. Very, very bad decision is used in the sense that if you'd just gotten paid after six months at sea and were already on your sixth Mojito and could just barely see your own cards, you'd never make that same decision if all the other cards were face up."

Literary license aside, I still think this is a pretty good definition of suckout. This definition provides no clear percentage point at which an outcome becomes a suckout, and I think that's appropriate. Like almost everything related to poker, the specific definition of suckout depends on the siutation. If a player is getting money odds that justify making a play based on the perceived odds of the cards, then it's a good play and when it comes in it isn't a suckout.

This, I expect, more than any other aspect of this definition, would be a point of contention for some. I can imagine it argued that simply getting the right odds for a call doesn't result in hitting a 3-outer on the river not being a suckout. But if the true essence of suckout is dumb luck triumphing over proper play, then good play can not be a suckout regardless of the card odds.

I don't expect the world to start moving toward proper usage of the term suckout as a result of this blog entry. If only one or two people move in that direction, I'll be happy. If a blogger or two writes out their thoughts on this topic, even if they disagree with me, I'll be happy to see a dialog begin. If anybody, anywhere, even once, stops themselves from incorrectly using the phrase "begs the question", I'll be ecstatic.

Words mean things, regardless of what Humpty Dumpty might say on the topic.

5 comments:

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

So let's take this logic forward a bit and see where we end up. You hinted at this in your post, but let me ask this question:

Say it's the turn round of betting in a standard nlh tournament, and let's just say that the pot is now 1000 chips, and the board reads, say, AAKK. You have A5o in your hand, and I have KK for the unlikely quad Kings. You are drawing to exactly one out, the remaining Ace in the deck.

Now let's say that I bet a mere 20 chips into that 1000-chip pot, and you call because you are in fact getting basically the 2% odds you need to draw to your one out. Then the case Ace falls on the river.

Is this a suckout or not a suckout in your view? Because using the definition you include in your post, this would not be a suckout because you didn't make a mistake since you were getting the proper odds to draw to that one-outer on the river.

To me, this example shows why the better definition of the word (or at least, of the concept that I think everyone is referring to when we use the word "suckout") should not be related to a play that would be a mistake had the player involved been able to see all the hidden cards in play. Instead, as I wrote on Jordan's blog the other day, I think the concept of "suckout" is really related to some incredible long shot hitting after the money is already into the middle of the table. We could debate all day about the exact percentage involved -- and I'm not partial to any one percentage, other than to say it ought to need to be a fairly large number to qualify for usage of this term.

What do you think? Is that guy hitting his 2% shot at the river -- even with the proper odds to draw at it -- a "suckout"? If you say it is not, then I submit that you are using this term to define a concept that is different from what the majority of the rest of poker players seem to believe. If you do believe the 2-outer, even when drawn at with the right odds, is in fact a "suckout", then I believe your definition needs to change from the one you found referred to from the full tilt forums.

Patch said...

I see two problems here. I am inclined to agree that drawing the case ace on the river, regardless of the pot odds, should probably be considered a suckout. So that says the "mistake" aspect of my definition isn't entirely correct. As you point out, depending on the play of the hand, it may well be possible to not make a mistake, but still end up with a draw that would reasonably be considered a suckout.

But, like you, I'm disinclined to name a specific percentage at which a draw crosses from just generally lucky to suckout. So that leaves us with a rather nebulous definition of suckout.

I suppose that's not without precedent. It's worked for the Supreme Court with determining whether or not something is obscene. "I don't know how to define it, but I know it when I see it."

The problem, of course, is that not everyone has the same standards regarding obscenity or suckouts. That's why the one statement mentioned on Jordan's blog used "suckout" in a sense I'm sure was simply referring to a hand where the winner was at a slight disadvantage when the money went in.

You say you think the definition should refer to some incredible long shot hitting after the money has gone in. Isn't that kind of the same thing as one player making a very big mistake?

Or are you suggesting that the potential for a suckout can change after the money goes in? For instance, altering your scenario a bit, say it's AA vs KK when all the money goes in. AA is roughly 82% to win. The flop comes AKK. Now it's 95% to the kings. The turn is a blank and the river brings the case ace. Is this suck/re-suck, or did the universe simply return things to how they should be after a brief interlude with improbability? Is the potential for a suckout set when the money goes in or is it dynamic as the cards fall?

I can see reasonable arguments on both sides of this question, though I'm inclined to go with the suckout potential being set when the money goes in. Which kind of brings us back to the suckout potential being dependent on whether the player made a mistake or not. If it's 55/45 when the money goes in pre-flop, that 45 is calculated using all fives cards to come. The fact that the one card that helped fell on the river instead of the flop doesn't have any impact on the correctness of the play, the odds when the money went in, or, in my opinion, whether the hand qualifies as a suckout. After the money goes in, the order of the cards in the deck should have no impact on whether or not a hand is a suckout.

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

I completely agree with just about everything you've said in your comment there, Patch. I don't see how the order of the cards should have the least bit to do with whether something is a suckout or not. Again I reiterate that I don't think it actually matters what is and is not a suckout in a practical sense, but for the sake of argument and since you say you're really into words, I think that it should be when the money goes into the middle, if one player is a significant favorite, but then goes on to lose the hand. Again, how significant of a favorite can be debated, but I still say it's ridick to call a 55/45 shot losing any kind of a "suckout". It needs to be closer to the 7/10 than 5/10 kind of chance to be a suckout in my book. Maybe it's just a personal choice as far as how bad of a suckout it needs to be.

Maybe it makes sense to break it down by specific beats or numbers of outs and cards left to come in the most common holdem situations instead of just abstract percentages. For example:

Pair over pair preflop (roughly 81%): Definitely a suckout.

Domination preflop (AK over AQ, etc., roughly 80%): Definitely a suckout.

6 outer with two cards to come, like with AK vs. an underpair that gets allin on the flop -- but not if the money went in before the flop (roughly 75%): Definitely a suckout.

Obviously anything less than 6 outs with 2 cards to come, since I think the 75-25 is a suckout.

Guy hits a flush or straight on the turn or river when you get it allin on the flop -- but again not if it got allin before the flop (65% or 67%): To me, this is the borderline, and in my view this is a suckout. But it's borderline, I admit that. I just think when you get a guy to push on you when he's just a 1-in-3 shot to win, that's a suckout if he goes on to win the hand. I think subconsciously this particular scenario is why I always tend to end up on roughly 66% as the borderline of suckout.

Food for thought. Love to know your thoughts on this.

Btw I commented on this in my blog as well tonight, but I meant no disrespect to your play at all when I said I was "shocked" when you flipped A7 or A8 or whatever it was at the Hoy last night. I have clarified my post to make clear that my shock was only shock at actually not being behind. I figured for sure with you pushing there that you would have AK or AQ or something. Obviously that play was fine, obvious even.

And you don't really get under my skin, don't worry. I love playing with you and actually enjoy our little tussles here and there. It's just nice for me to be on the winning end of things after several times on the other side.

Btw I suppose that first "suckout" I've been complaining about might not have technically been, according to my personal definition. It was Riverchasers, and I think you hit your miracle river card before the rest of the money went into the middle. Although, most of the chips had gotten in there already before that shitcard. Oh well. The last couple were bona fide suckouts, don't you think? It really doesn't matter one bit, but your posts and comments seem to suggest you do not agree with that analysis.

Patch said...

The more I think about this whole suckout thing the less I'm sure a clear definition is possible. And the less I'm beginning to care about it, so I guess even my interest in such things is rather finite. It's made less interesting by the certainty that any conclusion we might come to here will have effectively zero impact on how the rest of the world will (mis)use the term.

I still rather like the idea of "suckout" referring to a player making a big mistake and winning anyway. But, as you pointed out, there are some extreme cases that bring up flaws in that definition.

I was thinking along the lines of "suckout" referring to an outcome that is surprising, which I feel would move the suckout point below the 80/20 line, but then my jaded poker sense kicked in and told me I'm not really surprised at ANY outcome. I've been on both ends of too many one- and two-outers to be much surprised when they hit.

Sorry about the "shocking" confusion. Thanks for the clarification.

It's also good to know I don't need to wear my kevlar jockstrap every time we play. I'd hate to think you gunning for me was going to be a regular thing.

I used to play a LOT of 2/4 limit at PokerRoom. I generally did quite well. (This was back when it was pretty easy to find several tables with a couple total fish.) There was one guy I used to run into all the time. And every time I did he would clean my clock. It was seldom the result of losing big hands to him. It was more that every time I was in the blinds he'd raise and I'd have crap cards I couldn't reasonably take up against him. If I tried to play back with nothing it would always turn out he had good cards.

This guy quickly became my number one nemesis. I lost more to him than any other single player. This bugged the hell out of me because his play didn't strike me as all that fantastic. Then I took a closer look at the PokerTracker data I had on him and discovered my impression of his play was correct. He was a huge loser overall. If it wasn't for my contributions to his bankroll he probably would have disappeared long before.

It was a painful pill to swallow, but I finally accepted that he was my very own personal agent of variance. Fate had simply lined things up such that he got good cards and I got crap whenever I was in the blinds, and if we were ever in a hand together he'd almost always get better cards than me. It was brutal.

So a few suckouts by the same player shouldn't come as a big surprise.

As I recall, the final blow in both tournaments was a victory by a significantly disadvantaged hand, though I believe both were just the final nail in a coffin that had been mostly nailed shut already. Were they suckouts? Yeah, probably, even by the more stringent "mistake" criteria.

The big blow in that one tournament, where you played long ball and the deck threw you a curve at the river, has had considerable discussion already. I personally feel the long ball hitter has only himself to blame when he strikes out like that. He knowingly chose that course of action and should fully expect the strike out every so often.

I don't know, the more I think about it the more I'm inclined to go back to my original definition for suckout. Let me ask this. Do you think "suckout" should involve any concept of responsibility or fault? Going back to the quad kings example, does the level of suckage change in any way because the player with the kings did not force the other player to make a mistake? Does it become more of a suckout if he bets 50 at the turn instead of 20? Does it become less of a suckout if he checks?

I know I'm going in circles here. That probably explains why I'm feeling dizzy.

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Responding to your last question, I have my own phraseology that I personally use in situations like this. To me, it is undoubtedly a hideous, unfathomable suckout when the guy with quad Kngs bets nothing on the turn and then gets nailed by the case Ace hitting the river. There was 1 card in the deck that could hurt him, and that one card hit. It's a suckout in my eyes. To me, "suckout" doesn't include any notion of fault or responsibility at all. It's just a math term, at least as far as the way I use it. Only 20% of the cards in the deck and lose for me, and one of them hits. That's a suckout, no matter how you got there, in my eyes.

Personally, I don't generally call things a "bad beat" if in fact the person who got beat brought it on himself by checking or not betting enough such that he allowed his opponent to stay in a pot that the opponent would otherwise have folded. So to me, I might say that the quad Kings guy losing to the case Ace on the river did not suffer a "bad beat" when he got "sucked out on". It's all just terminology in the end, with no real significance as we've been discussing over the past few days.

I do enjoy this discussion though. Wish more people would stop by with their two cents. To me the most interesting question on the topic would be what percentage the beat needs to be before it officially becomes a "suckout". I say 2-to-1, but I'd be interested to know if others think more, or less. Though I can hardly see how it's a suckout if it's less than 66% to win anyways.