1 in 649,740

It was once again not a very good night on The Quest, though the hand above definitely brightened my attitude. And not only did I hit a royal flush, I got paid for it. Not as much as it seems it should be worth, but given that these types of hands usually pay next to nothing, it was a decent payoff. Too bad Stars doesn't have a bonus for a royal.

I have to wonder a bit about whether the odds of hitting a royal flush have been calculated correctly. I got the odds in the title from some web page. According to that page there are 2,598,960 possible ways to make a hand in Hold'em. Four of those are royal flushes. So the odds of a royal flush are 1 in 649,740.

I know I've played at least 300,000 hands of ring Hold'em. It might be closer to 500,000. I've varied during my poker "career" from keeping very good track of every hand and not keeping track at all. Several times. So I don't have hard proof, but I'd guess I'm on the low side of 500,000.

This is the fourth (or is it the fifth?) royal flush I've had in online ring games. I know it's at least the fourth because I got two of them at a site that gives a 100xBB bonus for, as they call it, a "royal straight flush". (That just doesn't roll off the tongue quite right.) And I know I got another one previously because I was disappointed that I didn't get a bonus. There may have been one more in there. And none of this is counting tournament play, where I vaguely recall having hit a royal flush at least a couple times.

According to PokerTracker I would have a few more if I hadn't folded before the river. (These were hands where I held just one card of the royal and folded it before the flop because it came with a crappy partner.)

So here I am with less than 500,000 hands played and I've had at least four royal flushes, plus a couple more I would have had if I'd been stupid enough to play K3o into a pre-flop raise. I've never considered myself especially lucky at poker. Sure, I've had my share of suckouts, but no one has ever accused me of being a card rack over more than the time span of a tournament or two. If anything, I've had the impression that luck, if there is such a thing, is slightly against me. Knowing how far ahead I am on the royal flush curve, perhaps I should reevaluate that impression.

Speaking of the not very lucky department, despite the one really good hand, it was another down night for The Quest. I finished the evening with $4.46 less than when it started. I made one stupid move that cost me a fair bit, but otherwise the big losses were to idiots who called my big bets despite not being remotely close to getting the right odds. Nothing but an inside straight draw and one guy calls a 2/3 pot bet with just the river to come. I'm not sure if it's the bad luck or the rewarding of stupidity that makes me more upset.

I should also put in a good word for the Popopop Universal Replayer, which is what I used for the picture of the royal flush posted above. This is a great tool for reviewing hands during play and going over your play after a session. The chiclet scroller at the bottom of the screen is great for zeroing in on decisive hands. I've not made much use of the export feature, but it looks decent. And, best of all, the replayer is free!