MATH and more

I played the 6-max deep stacks NLHE at Stars on Friday night. It was pretty uneventful for me. Couldn't get anything going. Eventually dumped a big chunk of my stack on top pair when the other guy flopped a set. I was gone before the second break. You'd think after all this time I'd have learned to be more patient.

On Sunday I played the WPBT Event #1 at Full Tilt. I did nothing but fold the first hour. I think I won a single pot when everyone folded to me in the big blind. Pitiful.

The first hand after the break I'm down to M=10 and I get ATo in the BB. This is the best hand I've seen all night. It folds to the button. He raises to 360 (standard 3BB). I push all-in for 1735. He's got me covered several times over. After a lot of thought, he calls and turns over 55. I hit runner-runner for a straight to take the pot.

I've pontificated on this before, but I'm still a bit surprised at what some people consider a "suckout". Was I a big underdog to come up with a winning card on the river? Yep. I had ten outs, so I'm about a 4:1 dog. Was it a suckout? Not according to my definition. When the chips went in the pot I was 47% to win. Those odds include ALL FIVE cards on the board, not just the first three. It should come as no surprise that a large number of the hands included in that 47% require all five cards. (This is just a general comment, not directed at anyone in particular, especially not to the loser of that hand who accepted defeat very graciously.)

I never had any real design on winning this WPBT event, but I did hope to finish in the top half of the field so I'd collect some points and be able to see my name on the leaderboard. I'm sure I'm capable of winning such an event, it's just that it's a very tough field and without a good bit of luck the odds are against almost any individual.

I'm in okay shape after my "suckout" and likely to make the points cutoff if I don't do anything stupid. So I go back to folding all the crap I'm being dealt. Finally I get ATo again, this time when I'm on the button. It folds to me so I raise it to 480 (3BB), expecting to just scoop up the blinds. The SB calls. Then the BB pushes all-in, making it about 1500 to go. Another ~1000 to me with ATo with a call and the raise behind? I don't think so. I fold. The SB calls and turns over AJo. The BB shows AQs. I'm figuring I dodged a bullet until the flop comes JQK. I'd have flopped the straight. Oh well, folding was still the right play.

Now I'm not quite so secure in making the points cutoff, but I'm not in terrible shape either. A few hands later I get 4d5d in MP. I don't really have the stack to play this kind of hand, but something told me to give it a go, so I call. SB calls, BB checks. Flop comes Ad2d3h. As Joe Hachem would say, "Pass the shugah!" Nut straight with a draw to a straight flush! I'm making the points in this puppy! SB checks, BB bets 480. I'm a bit concerned about the flush since short of the 3d hitting my flush draw is rather weak, so I decide I'll settle for what's in the pot now. I push all-in. The SB folds. The BB calls without hesitation and turns over 33. The turn brings an apparently innocuous 7s. I'm already counting my new chips. The river hits my flush redraw, but it's a 7, giving the BB the boat. Man, did that sting.

Last night I watched some of the "Poker After Dark" shows from last week (DVRs are wonderful things) and saw Phil Ivey do the exact same thing to Sam Farha. I really felt for Sammy.

If I may digress for a moment from the main theme of this evening's symposium, I'd like to say a few words about "Poker After Dark". The first week of this show was certainly entertaining, what with Hellmuth storming off the set in a tantrum and threatening to never play in one of these again (Is that a threat or a promise, Phil?) and the action you get at any table where Gus Hansen is sitting. The next week was a total snooze fest. Six WSOP ME bracelet winners at the same table. How could this fail to be exciting and entertaining? When the only chatty one at the table is Jamie Gold and he's appropriately awed into silence by the presence of true poker greats. They need to find some way to inject some sort of life into this program or it's going to fail even at 2am. I love watching poker and even I'm falling asleep in the middle of this show. And I'm not watching at 2am.

Getting back to our main topic, last night I played Mondays At The Hoy. I had one good hand early, but that was about it. The rest of them were pretty mediocre in relation to the blinds. I did hang on to take 5th, but that was out of the money.

I've been continuing my quest to clear all my PokerStars bonuses before my account runs dry. So far I continue to lose faster than the bonus is clearing. I swear I have the worst luck at limit. Tonight I flopped a full house and still managed to lose. Several times I agressively played very decent hands only to find my opponent had the exact same hand. Combined with the 1/2 tables at Stars being the tightest I've ever seen them, it's not been a good run.

I still have one bonus left and that doesn't expire until July, so my goal now is to get the remaining 85 FPPs I need to get Silver status for the next month. I've never been anything above the base level because I mostly play tournaments at Stars. This will probably work about like the last time I flew a lot. I finally earned enough points so I'd get free upgrades to business class for the next year and the company stopped sending me anywhere.

The rest of the bonus should be easy to clear before it expires. And since it's now close to impossible to deposit, not to mention all my free bankroll is still stuck at Neteller, I don't think I have to worry about any new bonuses piling up.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, is the Mookie at Full Tilt. Thursday is CC's Thursday Bash. Hope to see you there.