30 January 2007

MATH and more

I played the 6-max deep stacks NLHE at Stars on Friday night. It was pretty uneventful for me. Couldn't get anything going. Eventually dumped a big chunk of my stack on top pair when the other guy flopped a set. I was gone before the second break. You'd think after all this time I'd have learned to be more patient.

On Sunday I played the WPBT Event #1 at Full Tilt. I did nothing but fold the first hour. I think I won a single pot when everyone folded to me in the big blind. Pitiful.

The first hand after the break I'm down to M=10 and I get ATo in the BB. This is the best hand I've seen all night. It folds to the button. He raises to 360 (standard 3BB). I push all-in for 1735. He's got me covered several times over. After a lot of thought, he calls and turns over 55. I hit runner-runner for a straight to take the pot.

I've pontificated on this before, but I'm still a bit surprised at what some people consider a "suckout". Was I a big underdog to come up with a winning card on the river? Yep. I had ten outs, so I'm about a 4:1 dog. Was it a suckout? Not according to my definition. When the chips went in the pot I was 47% to win. Those odds include ALL FIVE cards on the board, not just the first three. It should come as no surprise that a large number of the hands included in that 47% require all five cards. (This is just a general comment, not directed at anyone in particular, especially not to the loser of that hand who accepted defeat very graciously.)

I never had any real design on winning this WPBT event, but I did hope to finish in the top half of the field so I'd collect some points and be able to see my name on the leaderboard. I'm sure I'm capable of winning such an event, it's just that it's a very tough field and without a good bit of luck the odds are against almost any individual.

I'm in okay shape after my "suckout" and likely to make the points cutoff if I don't do anything stupid. So I go back to folding all the crap I'm being dealt. Finally I get ATo again, this time when I'm on the button. It folds to me so I raise it to 480 (3BB), expecting to just scoop up the blinds. The SB calls. Then the BB pushes all-in, making it about 1500 to go. Another ~1000 to me with ATo with a call and the raise behind? I don't think so. I fold. The SB calls and turns over AJo. The BB shows AQs. I'm figuring I dodged a bullet until the flop comes JQK. I'd have flopped the straight. Oh well, folding was still the right play.

Now I'm not quite so secure in making the points cutoff, but I'm not in terrible shape either. A few hands later I get 4d5d in MP. I don't really have the stack to play this kind of hand, but something told me to give it a go, so I call. SB calls, BB checks. Flop comes Ad2d3h. As Joe Hachem would say, "Pass the shugah!" Nut straight with a draw to a straight flush! I'm making the points in this puppy! SB checks, BB bets 480. I'm a bit concerned about the flush since short of the 3d hitting my flush draw is rather weak, so I decide I'll settle for what's in the pot now. I push all-in. The SB folds. The BB calls without hesitation and turns over 33. The turn brings an apparently innocuous 7s. I'm already counting my new chips. The river hits my flush redraw, but it's a 7, giving the BB the boat. Man, did that sting.

Last night I watched some of the "Poker After Dark" shows from last week (DVRs are wonderful things) and saw Phil Ivey do the exact same thing to Sam Farha. I really felt for Sammy.

If I may digress for a moment from the main theme of this evening's symposium, I'd like to say a few words about "Poker After Dark". The first week of this show was certainly entertaining, what with Hellmuth storming off the set in a tantrum and threatening to never play in one of these again (Is that a threat or a promise, Phil?) and the action you get at any table where Gus Hansen is sitting. The next week was a total snooze fest. Six WSOP ME bracelet winners at the same table. How could this fail to be exciting and entertaining? When the only chatty one at the table is Jamie Gold and he's appropriately awed into silence by the presence of true poker greats. They need to find some way to inject some sort of life into this program or it's going to fail even at 2am. I love watching poker and even I'm falling asleep in the middle of this show. And I'm not watching at 2am.

Getting back to our main topic, last night I played Mondays At The Hoy. I had one good hand early, but that was about it. The rest of them were pretty mediocre in relation to the blinds. I did hang on to take 5th, but that was out of the money.

I've been continuing my quest to clear all my PokerStars bonuses before my account runs dry. So far I continue to lose faster than the bonus is clearing. I swear I have the worst luck at limit. Tonight I flopped a full house and still managed to lose. Several times I agressively played very decent hands only to find my opponent had the exact same hand. Combined with the 1/2 tables at Stars being the tightest I've ever seen them, it's not been a good run.

I still have one bonus left and that doesn't expire until July, so my goal now is to get the remaining 85 FPPs I need to get Silver status for the next month. I've never been anything above the base level because I mostly play tournaments at Stars. This will probably work about like the last time I flew a lot. I finally earned enough points so I'd get free upgrades to business class for the next year and the company stopped sending me anywhere.

The rest of the bonus should be easy to clear before it expires. And since it's now close to impossible to deposit, not to mention all my free bankroll is still stuck at Neteller, I don't think I have to worry about any new bonuses piling up.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, is the Mookie at Full Tilt. Thursday is CC's Thursday Bash. Hope to see you there.

26 January 2007

I still hate blig slick

My love/hate (mostly hate) relationship with big slick continued last night. I got it four more times at 1/2 limit, twice splitting the pot with another AK (what are the odds of that?), winning once, losing once, giving me a net of -$2.50 on the evening for big slick.

And that was just at ring limit. I also played CC's Thursday Bash where I just couldn't get any traction at all. Got AK once there for a loss of T720. That's the hand that killed me. AQ was similarly unkind, losing me T625. Even KK, which I got twice, only netted me T20. It was one of those nights. I got a reasonable number of good starters, but they never connected with anything. Bleh!

For you bloggers, don't forget the kickoff event of this season's WPBT, Sunday, 9pm EST, at Full Tilt. Scroll down a few entries for the full details.

24 January 2007

I hate big slick!

As I've mentioned, I've been working on clearing some bonus at PokerStars in the cheap seats. Last week the 1/2 LHE tables were not exactly loose, but not certainly not squeaking when they walked. This week there's been a lot of squeaking. This makes it somewhat more difficult to turn a profit, not to mention earn FPPs.

On top of uber-tight tables, I've been dealt big slick 25 times in the last three days and won one pot of any size at all. I did win a few other pots, but they weren't worth much. My net for the week on big slick is 5BB. And that's not counting the big hit I took in a tournament when AK did nothing but get me in trouble.

That's one third the expected return. I know that's how variance works, but it's getting very depressing. I'm about to the point where I'm going to start folding big slick. You're supposed to get excited when you see that A and K. I'm just wondering how much it's going to cost me this time.

I'll be glad when this bonus chase is over and I can stop screwing with limit. I used to do very well at limit -- actually made most of my current bankroll playing limit -- but in the last year I've been completely unable to turn a profit at the limit tables. It's just loss after loss. I don't know, maybe playing NL and tournaments have ruined me for limit. Whatever it is, it's very depressing, and coming up with just a bit more than squat from the last 25 big slicks is not helping my attitude.

Continuing with the theme of depression, I played the Mookie tonight. I was card dead the whole time. I won one pot, and on that all I did was steal the blinds. Best hand I saw all night was the ATs I went all-in with and ran into TripJax's AK.

Not having had enough losing for one evening, I immediately signed up for a Tier 1 SnG at Full Tilt. I usually do quite well at these. Until this week I'd won a ticket in the last five in a row and parlayed one of those into a Tier 2 ticket. In this tournament I actually got some cards and was doing pretty good, staying well within the top five winning positions for much of the time. I made one mistake that set me back, but was making a decent comeback.

I had a healthy stack but needed to improve a bit to be in a winning position. UTG, who'd been pretty wild the whole time, raises to 1050 (3.5BB). I'm in the SB with QQ. I'm about 90% sure I'm ahead and the 1500 chips already in the pot will go a long way toward securing me a ticket, so I push. UTG calls with, get this, QJs. I could understand this if I'd been a desperate short stack that could be pushing with anything, but I wasn't desperate and it was a near certainty that QJs was way behind here. And the call cost him two-thirds of his remaining stack, leaving him in very bad shape if the likely odds hold true. A fold would have hurt, but left him in reasonable shape and far from out of it. All told, one of the stupidest moves I've seen in a while. Of course, he rivers his flush and I go home with no ticket.

Maybe it's not just big slick that I hate.

Also, just a reminder to not bother looking for the WWdNot. It's dead. Go play CC's Thursday Bash instead.

23 January 2007

Deep Stacks

It seems PokerStars finally took my suggestion and 86'd all the deep stacks limit tournaments. I'm not sure when it happened. I just noticed it today.

I'm sure no one gives a hoot, but I updated the Deep Stacks Google Calendar (link in the right-hand column) to reflect the new schedule.

My Monday

I was about to sign up for Mondays At The Hoy last night when I had an attack of "what's-the-point?" Nothing against Hoy, his tournament, or any of the blogger tournaments. I haven't been playing that much lately and haven't been doing much at all with tournaments.

One of my PokerStars bonuses will be expiring in March and I have another one waiting beyond that one. I generally clear Stars bonuses at a glacial pace so I knew if I was going to clear the next one it was going to take some effort. A bit of analysis of rake, points, my account balance, and the percent seeing flop on the Stars limit tables, and I decided to take a bit of a step back and play 1/2 limit to clear the bonus. The pot only needs to get to $10 to get one FPP and there are still more than a few horrendous players at the 1/2 tables. If not for a couple horrible suckouts and one very unfortunate hand (A J44 flop with me holding JJ and the other guy holding 44. There's no way I'm NOT going to the wall on that one.), I'd be doing quite well at the tables in addition to the bonus.

Anyway, all of this is to say that I've been playing mostly low end limit the last couple weeks and my tournament play is probably a bit rusty. So, rather than play the Hoy, a tournament which is good but does not usually reflect the kind of play you see in the real world, I opted for the real thing instead. I had a couple $26 tournament tickets I'd picked up cheap at Full Tilt (those Tier 1 tournaments are like shooting fish in a barrel), so I played the nightly $35k.

Considering I haven't seriously played a big tournament in quite some time, I think I did okay. If not for an early suckout (my AA vs her KK) by someone who proceeded to donk off my chips, I think I would have done considerably better. (I really hate it when my chips go to someone undeserving.) I only made a couple mistakes I'm aware of, and on one of those I sucked out. (That suckout is okay because I used the chips wisely.)

The other mistake lead to my downfall. We were into the money and the blinds had climbed to a fairly ridiculous level when I get TT in late position. Some guy in MP made a min-raise. Several people at this table had done this with big hands and it did make me suspicious, but his stack was well into the danger area and I thought he might be simply being cautious with his chips. I raised him all-in. He called and turned over KK. His hand held and I was down to about an M of 5. I managed to steal enough to stay afloat and eventually pushed with AKs. Got a call from somebody with a mid pocket pair. The board was not kind and my night was over. 71st of about 1200 for $50-something. Considering I won my ticket to this in a $8.60 satellite, I guess that's not bad.

Interest in the WWdNot appears to have dwindled to just about zero. It was cancelled last week because only two people signed up. Without publicity from some source more popular than this blog, I'm afraid it's doomed. My efforts to get some promotion at Card Squad were unsuccessful. So, once again, the WWdNot is going on hiatus. We'll have to see if it turns into permanent retirement.

18 January 2007

WWdNot Tonight

Just a reminder that the WWdNot the Ursus Aureus Invitational is tonight at PokerStars, 22:00 ET, password is monkey.

If there is any interest, I'd be happy to schedule a second-chance tournament too, though we tend to get so few willing to take the first chance I suspect it's not worth the effort. Maybe a later starting time would pick up a few more west coast players. Leave a comment if you'd be interested in playing in a second-chance tournament starting at, let's say, 23:30 ET.

16 January 2007

US arrests former Neteller officials

The Wall Street Journal is reporting the US has arrested two former Neteller officials and will charge them with conspiracy to transfer funds with the intent to promote illegal gambling. Stephen Eric Lawrence, former chairman of the board, was arrested Monday in the Virgin Islands. John David Lefebvre, former president and board member, was arrested in Malibu, California. Neither man has any current connection to Neteller other than as a stockholder.

The full article is here, though a subscription is required to view it in its entirety. Most of the article is the usual stuff when these things happen -- a bit of background, with which we're all very familiar, a lot of "no comments" from company insiders, etc.

I'm afraid it's going to get a lot darker before we have any hope of seeing the dawn.

12 January 2007

WWdNot much of a turnout


Not exactly a record-breaking turnout for the WWdNot last night. Five, count 'em, five hearty warriors braved the WWdNot poker arena. I suppose after the holiday hiatus and the somewhat limited announcement of the return, a small turnout was to be expected.

Congratulations to NewinNov for besting the bunch. Please plan to join us next week for the WWdNot the Ursus Aureus Invitational, 18 January, PokerStars, 22:00 EST. Password is monkey.

10 January 2007

Upcoming Tournaments

On the remote chance that anyone reading this doesn't already know the password, I wanted to mention that the password for the WWdNot tomorrow is 'monkey'.



Also, as the image above should suggest, the new WPBT series begins in a couple weeks. This is a blogger-only event. If you have a poker blog, please join in.

09 January 2007

I'm Back

My holiday and self-imposed absence from the poker scene are now officially over. I think playing in five or six blogger tournaments every week, in addition to all the other tournaments and ring games, finally burned me out on poker. I quit playing in mid-December and only started playing a bit of limit hold'em again this weekend. It was a nice break, but after my first successful limit session in what seems like the last six months, I think I'm ready to throw myself back into the fray.

I've scheduled the WWdNot the NewinNov Invitational for this Thursday at 2200 EST at PokerStars. If any other bloggers are reading this I'd appreciate your help in getting the word out.

I'm also planning to play the WWdN tonight. I had signed up last week, but I wasn't feeling well and unregistered at the last minute. This time I intend to play. It will be my first tournament in over three weeks. I hope I remember how to play.

Over the holiday I drove from Orlando to my home town of Aurora, Illinois, to spend Christmas with my folks. Aurora has a casino that started as one of the riverboat deals and eventually became a land-based facility on an island in the middle of the beautiful Fox river.

My cousin and I were going to go play in their mid-week tournament, but they apparently have way more potential players than they have room for. You have to show up at 9am to get a bracelet which is a lottery entry and hope your number gets called for the tournament that starts at 1pm. Way too involved for me, not to mention the getting there at 9am thing.

So we decided to go to breakfast and wander by the casino afterwards to get into a cash game. When we got there about 11am there were at least 25 names on the list for each available game. They have eight tables in the poker room, only six of which were being used. The guy at the desk said it would be at least a two hour wait. I figured more like three. He said if we wanted to play in the future we should come by at 6am when they post the sign-up sheet by some podium outside. The casino doesn't even open until 10am. If they have people signing up at 6am for a cash game that starts at 10, it seems pretty obvious to me that they need to expand their poker room. I don't know, maybe the profit per square foot is higher on the 2¢ slot machines than it is at 10/20 limit hold'em.