If poker has taught me anything, it's that one shouldn't attempt to draw larger conclusions from a small set of occurrences. It's one of the fallacies that allows the sharks to feed off the fishes.
That said, I'm starting to wonder if the sharks aren't beginning to swarm in the Double-Up pool. Until the last couple days most of the Double-Ups I've played have been heavily populated with players who clearly didn't have a clue about proper strategy.
Some of the ones I've played recently, though, have had a majority of players who weren't idiots. Play even in the turbos has dragged on for quite a while, with pressure being applied all around.
I'm playing one right now where the VP$IPs of the last six players are 14%, 4%, 12%, 7%, 18%, and the high of 32%. That's after 60 hands. These all appear to be decent players who know what they're doing in this situation. No rash moves. No panic from the small stacks. It's kind of scary.
I'm dearly hoping this is just a blip and not indication of a larger trend. These have been quite profitable for me.
In case you're wondering, the one I was playing finally ended. The guy with the VP$IP of 32% made a stupid move on the last hand, raising a dry pot on the river when one player was already all-in, but it turned out okay. He won the hand and I added another big $4.80 to my bankroll.
Addendum: I just played another one that went longer than any of the turbo Double-Ups I've played. The play was very, very tight, but a couple of these guys still didn't have a clue about strategy. Three times there was a player who had crumbs left after posting the blinds and this one bigger stack raised pre-flop. He raised! I couldn't believe it. One player left to eliminate. One player who is clearly going all-in for just a bit more than the BB. And this moron raises and shuts everyone else out of the pot. I was screaming at the screen.
There were a couple other times where there were obvious calls to be made and people folded. I recall one where the SB had about 200 more than the BB. (The amount, not the player.) I had a lot of chips so I called from the button knowing he'd push and the BB (the player, not the amount) would call. He pushed, then the BB folds. He's already in for 800 and he folds for 200 more. Oh, well. They may be tight players, but they clearly don't know beans about proper strategy.
30 January 2009
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I think they're getting tougher from even a couple of months ago now, which is a great shame. I really used to think they were completely beatable up to and including $25,but I even played a $5 double or nothing recently and found it was a total rock garden. Never mind.
An roi of 21% is excellent by the way.
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