13 January 2009

Double-Up Secrets #1a

This one is somewhat a corollary of Double-Up Secret #1 and may on the surface sound like another, "Well, duh!"

Double-Up Secret #1a: Don't risk chips when there's nothing to gain.

I just finished playing a Double-Up tournament where I saw this happen. We were down to six. There were three players all with about T800, in serious danger, and three who were in no danger at all. One of the shorties got involved in a hand with one of the big stacks and came out on top, more than doubling up. He wasn't a shoe-in to win, but he was in no immediate danger and with two players still at T800 he should have been folding anything but super premium hands. In his situation I would probably fold anything other than AA, KK, or QQ. I might call from the SB with a very strong drawing hand. But that would be it.

The next hand he was in the BB with the big stack in the SB. It folds to the SB who does a min-raise. The BB is holding AJo. The number one priority at this point is to protect your stack. Short of super-premium holdings, the proper action here without question is to fold. I don't consider AJo to be a super-premium holding.

Instead of folding, he does a min-reraise. This is probably the worst possible play here. He's committed 15% of his very precious stack on a non-made hand. Further, he's made a bet that's sure to be called because the pot is laying almost 6:1. And he's playing against someone with a stack more than twice the size of his -- somebody who has no fear of him at all. I could maybe see making a call here with the assumption you'd fold unless hitting the flop huge, but fold is still the obvious correct play. Pushing all-in would be better than making a min-reraise. The SB calls.

The flop is QQ6. The SB checks. Not holding a Q, I'm checking here. If you put in a reasonable bet, say half the pot, your stack is back very close to the danger zone and you're almost pot committed. Doing that on a bluff is suicidal. He dons his kamikaze outfit and bets T450 into a T990 pot, leaving T1210 behind. The SB calls. Oops.

The turn is a 4, unlikely to be any help to anyone. The SB checks again. Watching as this unfolded, even without knowing the cards, I had the clear sense the guy had gotten himself into a bad situation and just didn't know how to get out. He had enough chips already in the pot he felt he couldn't leave them out there, but he didn't know how to get them back.

I have no clue what was going through his head, but he bet T750 into a T1890 pot, leaving T460 behind. If the SB has anything -- and he must have something or he would have folded to the flop bet -- he's not going to fold to such a small bet now. The BB is clearly pot committed at this point, but doesn't push all his chips in. This is either desperation or somebody holding QQ trying to suck the other guy into pushing him all-in. The SB raises him all-in. Being pot committed he has little choice but to call. Actually, given the way the betting unfolded, it was pretty clear he was toast. It would have been smarter to fold and take a chance on the next hand rather than tossing in the rest of the chips on what was sure to be a losing hand.

The SB turns over KQ and we don't even need to see the river. The two small stacks who were in big trouble no doubt say a prayer of thanks and the tournament is over.

There were many mistakes made here by the BB, but by far his biggest was getting involved in the first place. If he folds to the min-raise by the SB he's still got twice as many chips as the next closest stack and there are two players in serious trouble with just one elimination left. He should be playing turtle and letting the big stacks finish the tournament for him. Instead, he tried to build his stack to no good purpose. One of the short stacks is quite likely to be eliminated in the next round or two. There's no good reason to take a risk on chipping up at this point. Don't risk chips when there's nothing to gain.

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