09 January 2009

You make the call

Here's the situation. PokerSnooze Double-Up tournament. Six players remaining, meaning only one more elimination to go. I'm in the BB for T300, leaving me T1800 behind. There's T630 already in the pot, including my blind. The short stack pushes all-in for T1415. It folds to me. I'm holding KQs. The pot is laying me 1.83:1. Do I make the call for T1115?

If I fold, I'll be the short stack by about T250. I won't be out of it, but I'll need to catch something to push with in the next four or five hands. (Or there's always the possibility two of the bigger stacks could mix it up, but I'm not holding my breath on that.)

If I call, there's a small chance I'm ahead. Most likely I'm behind. If I'm lucky, he's got JJ or less and we're in a coin flip. If I'm slightly unlucky, he's got an ace. If I'm really unlucky, he's got AA, KK or QQ. If I lose I'll be left with about T700.

Assuming he's got any pocket pair, or ace-anything, PokerStove says I win 42.68% of the time. If I'm just playing the odds, I clearly make the call given what the pot is laying me. But there's a lot else at play here seeing as I only need to survive past one more elimination that isn't me. If I fold, the two next biggest stacks will be T2045 and T2430, with blinds at 300/150/30.

Discuss amongst yourselves. Do I make the call?

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