Cheating

Dr. Pauly linked to an interesting thread at 2+2 today and suggested that other bloggers do the same so the story gets the coverage it deserves. Hard to imagine my link will pick up much that his misses, but I've posted it anyway because I want to comment on it.

I've seen the video of the Absolute Poker cheating. Even posted it here a week or two ago. I thought that pretty damning evidence.

Perhaps a video recreation of the Ultimate Bet situation would convince me as well, but I have to say that based on the statistical evidence posted at 2+2 I'm not convinced. Fewer than 3000 hands is insufficient to base any statistically valid conclusion. Of anyone, the folks who hang out at 2+2 should be among those most familiar with the long run consisting of hundreds of thousands of hands, not a couple thousand.

I believe I've written before about one particular guy I used to run into at Poker Room back in my bonus chasing days. I absolutely could not win against this guy. No matter what happened, if the two of us got into a hand together, it was about a 98% probability that he'd win. I don't have access to the Poker Tracker data, but I know this was over a several month period of me playing two to three hours a night. I'm sure I played well over 5000 hands against this guy.

This fellow was my number one nemesis. I lost more money to him, by a wide margin, than any other player in my Poker Tracker database. And here's the kicker -- he was a major losing player. He was bleeding money at an incredible rate, at least at the tables we played together. I must have been the only guy at the whole site that he was in plus territory against.

I wasn't losing to him because I was playing poor poker or he was playing great poker. As can be seen by his overall results, he was not a good player. I wasn't losing to him because I was seeking to even the score or because he was targeting me. I was losing to him because of variance, plain and simple. It just happened that when we got in a hand together, he would almost always end up with better cards.

I'm sure had he not wisely given up on playing poker, at least at Poker Room, I would have eventually evened the score and most likely taken a lot of money from him just like everyone else had.

All this said, some of the other things outlined in the 2+2 thread go a long way to convincing me that something not right was going on. The account name changes at very suspicious times, the deletion of accounts immediately after they've been outed at 2+2, the tie-in between Absolute and UB, all these make me rather glad I did not take advantage of the free $100 at UB. Not like somebody would be using super-user mode at the $0.01/$0.02 tables, but I don't want to play at a site where it appears systematic cheating is going on at any level.

Following my second place finish in Dr. Pauly's PLO tournament on Saturday, my poker karma had apparently not been properly balanced. I played a two-table SnG where I built up a nice stack early, only to bust out after back to back very bad beats. Monday I played a very cheap tournament at Poker.com, staying near the top of the pack much of the time, again to miss the final table due to a couple really bad beats. One of them was the type where all you can do is scratch your head trying to figure what the other guy was thinking when he pushed all his chips in, only to watch your chips heading in his direction when it's over. I profited a big $0.57 in that one. Well worth the three hours.

The Quest had some ups and downs over the weekend. The bankroll gained $5 this week, which seems to be about average since I rejoined The Quest in earnest. I'm going to have to find a way to step things up a bit. At $20 a month gain it's going to be another ten months before I have the bankroll to move up. I can't spend another ten months at $0.01/$0.02.